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Poll: majority of upstaters support Gov. Paterson
FISCAL OUTLOOK: Despite 'special economic session,' 63% of voters are not confident lawmakers will improve state's finances
By TOM WANAMAKER
TIMES ALBANY CORRESPONDENT
TUESDAY, AUGUST 19, 2008
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ALBANY — Facing massive budget deficits for the next few years, more and more upstate New Yorkers think their state is on the wrong track. In a poll released Monday, 57 percent of upstaters said New York is headed in the "wrong direction," up from 47 percent in July.

Yet upstaters continue to support Gov. David A. Paterson in his efforts to tackle New York's looming budget deficit, with 57 percent giving him a favorable rating — the same percentage as in July. Half describe his job performance as either "excellent" or "good."

"Despite the state's fiscal picture — or maybe because of the way he's talking to voters about it — David Paterson has the best favorable and job performance ratings with voters he's ever had," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena Research Institute, which conducted the monthly poll.

Upstaters overwhelmingly agree — by 77 percent — with Gov. Paterson's assessment of the state's fiscal condition as the worst it's been since New York City's financial crisis in the mid-1970s.

Despite the fact the governor has called Legislators back to Albany for a "special economic session" beginning today, upstaters are not convinced that the governor and Legislature will do anything about New York's fiscal problems before the end of the year. Sixty-three percent of upstate voters said they were either "not very confident" or "not at all confident" that lawmakers will "succeed" in improving the state's fiscal outlook.

In considering the myriad issues facing Legislators, upstaters were evenly divided on which ones they want addressed: 27 percent said the state budget deficit should be the first priority, while 26 percent cited "job creation" and 25 percent want action to reduce property taxes.

Gov. Paterson recently proposed $1 billion in spending cuts, from which he'd like the Legislature to select at least $600 million worth during the special session. Two of the state's largest areas of expenditure are education and health care. Thirty-one percent of upstaters prefer cuts in education spending, while 26 percent favor reductions in health care spending and 6 percent volunteered "both."

Not surprisingly, an overwhelming 83 percent of upstaters — the highest percentage of any region or demographic group represented in the survey — seek spending cuts to decrease the state's budget deficit, while 7 percent favor raising taxes. Six percent said "both."

Likewise, 71 percent of upstaters support the property tax cap, which would restrict tax increases to 4 percent annually, passed by the state Senate on Aug. 8. Seventeen percent of upstate voters oppose the idea.

Three-quarters of upstaters also favor a tax "circuit breaker," which would peg property taxes to a percentage of household income, while 18 percent oppose such a plan. Legislation to implement a circuit breaker has not come up for a vote in either the Senate or the Assembly.

When given a choice between one or the other, 58 percent of upstate voters favor the circuit breaker, while 33 percent prefer the cap.

All Legislators in both houses are up for election in November. While Democrats have a large majority in the Assembly, Republicans control the Senate by only one vote. Forty-seven percent of upstaters prefer that the Senate stay under a Republican majority, versus 40 percent who want the Democrats to take the Senate.

Regarding the ongoing presidential campaign, upstate voters prefer the Republican candidate, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., over Democratic Sen. Barack H. Obama, D-Illinois, by 43 percent to 39 percent — a statistical dead heat. Statewide, however, it's a different story as voters favor Mr. Obama over Mr. McCain by 47 percent to 39 percent.

"While New York has not gone 'red' in a presidential race since 1984, Obama's lead over McCain has fallen from 18 points in June to just eight points today," Mr. Greenberg said. "Certainly the dynamic in the race will change with the two conventions and the selection by both candidates of vice presidential running mates."

The survey was conducted Aug. 11 to 14 via phone calls to 627 registered voters in New York state. Its margin of error is plus-or-minus 3.9 percentage points.

The complete poll results

are available online at: www.siena.edu/SRI/SNY0808.

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