Historically, the economy has played a major role in presidential elections. But it is difficult to figure out just what impact it will have on the 2008 contest.

The economy is weak. Food and energy costs are high, home prices are falling and income is tight for many families. Voters have cited the economy as the most important issue in the election.

But, the Washington Post reports, analysts are puzzled that the party in control of the White House is not suffering in the polls. Indeed most surveys have shown a close race between Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

What is happening, then, with unemployment reaching 5.7 percent last month, the highest level in four years, and real disposable income showing its weakest annual growth since 1980? The latter factor should make a real difference. It is only the second time since World War II that real disposable income has fallen during a presidential election, according to Nigel Gault, economist for Global Insight.

And analysts consider Sen. McCain to be weak on economic solutions. Yet Sen. Obama may not be connecting with the voters on this subject either.

The economy may not be troubling the voters to the extent that they seek leadership from another party. Or perhaps neither candidate is getting through on the subject.

Yet voters say it is important. The candidate who makes the most sense on the topic and offers the most hope will have an edge.