The war in Afghanistan is not going well, according to an intelligence report draft. The situation there has deteriorated in the past two months and is the worst since the U.S.-led invasion of 2001, the Associated Press reported.

The National Intelligence Estimate, compiled by 16 intelligence agencies, notes that Afghanistan now poses the most serious security threat in the fight against terrorism.

One senior U.S. commander familiar with the recent situation in Afghanistan described it as "stagnant." He said, "We're not making progress ... because of a lack of capability in the government and because the Taliban have a safe haven from which to plan, train and launch attacks in to Afghanistan."

Another commander who read the draft of the report said that action must be taken to keep Afghanistan from spinning into a "downward spiral."

Since May, more than twice as many U.S. troops have died in Afghanistan than in Iraq.

There are 31,000 U.S. troops in the country and about as many from NATO countries and other allies. The Bush administration plans to send 3,500 more Marines there by the end of the year, 5,000 Army troops in early 2009 and up to three more Army brigades next year.

Supporting Hamid Karzai's weak government and targeting the heroin trade, which benefits the Taliban, are two U.S. goals contemplated in the review.

But the most important challenge will be to curtail activities of the Taliban and al-Qaida who move freely along the border with Pakistan. The new government in Islamabad must do more to pressure the militants who are mounting frequent attacks on allied troops in Afghanistan.

How can the situation improve so long as the enemy is protected in Pakistan's lawless areas? What will the next American administration do with Afghanistan?