Housing catching up to high demand
After years of scrambling to build adequate housing for soldiers and families, the supply may finally be catching up to the demand.
Over the past 60 days, the vacancy rate for two-bedroom apartments has risen from about 5 percent to 10 percent in Jefferson County. And those are the kinds of apartments that soldiers and young military families have traditionally rented, said Kevin J. Jordan, chairman of the housing committee with the Fort Drum Regional Liaison Organization.
"We've been trying to play catch-up in the housing market and get housing built on and off post," he said. "Now we might be at a point where production has caught up to demand, but we don't know yet because of all these variables."
The average vacancy rate is 5 percent to 7 percent for most markets, according to Carl A. McLaughlin, executive director of the organization. But, he said, the north country has not seen that percentage since before 2005, when the 3rd Brigade Combat Team was stationed at Fort Drum. After that, the demand for housing was so high that some soldiers lived in Syracuse and made the 120-mile round trip every day.
The variables affecting the market are wide ranging and involve what Mr. Jordan and Mr. McLaughlin call churn. Churn is the revolving door of soldiers and families leaving and coming to the north country, and it can make it difficult to stabilize the housing market and identify trends.
"Over the past four years we haven't seen what I would consider a norm," Mr. Jordan said. "The date we are all looking to, when we have been told that the end strength of Fort Drum will stabilize, is 2012."
Over the next three years, the Army plans to station an additional 1,000 soldiers at Fort Drum, bringing the total number of soldiers to 19,000. Until then, there is no way to tell whether there is a surplus in housing. And even after that, frequent deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan might mean that not all those soldiers will be in the north country at the same time for years to come.
"I don't know how long this is going to be for," said Lisa A. L'Huillier, the property manager for Two Plus Four Management, Syracuse, which manages several apartment complexes in Jefferson County. "I'm not sure if it's going to change when everyone from Fort Drum is here all at once. That hasn't happened yet, and I question what will happen after all the deployments and if we'll have a surplus or if it will even out then."
Ms. L'Huillier said the properties she manages in Watertown, Philadelphia, Carthage and Sackets Harbor have not seen a high vacancy rate because the rent prices are lower than some other complexes in the area.
"I am seeing where house rents are starting to come down a bit and it's because of the amount available," she said. "People are getting more realistic about their rents."
The newer apartment complexes that are bringing freshly constructed units to the market don't seem to be having a problem with vacancy either. Eagle Ridge Village on Route 342 in LeRay has 214 units that are all occupied, according to staff.
Starwood, on Starbuck Avenue, has 98 percent occupancy in 91 units, while its sister complex, Summit Woods on Washington Street, is at about 50 percent with 175 units, according to Richard L. Higgins, president of Norstar Development USA.
On-post housing also has seen a shorter wait time, decreasing from about three to nine months in November 2008 for a two-bedroom to about a month this month for the same kind of unit. That is, in part, because the number of available units on post has gone from 2,270 in 2005 to 3,115 at the end of last year. There are still an additional 554 homes being built, about 60 of which have been completed for occupation.
Mr. Jordan said there is no need to worry about the 10 percent vacancy rate until the end of summer. Sixty days is not enough time to identify whether the higher vacancy rate is here to stay, and he said it could be a short-term trend. Mr. McLaughlin said he is going to wait until after school starts in the fall before deciding whether there is a surplus of housing.
"Every summer is a period when you have ins and outs. That's normal, and a lot of it is driven by schools and the school calendar," he said. "What we are seeing now is higher than usual. I think we'll start to see a lot of those places become occupied. I truly believe there will be a positive increase and thus a decrease in the availability of places on the market."
