Slowing down

Don't expect the economy to revive anytime soon: that seems to be the message from experts taking a long view of America's financial picture.

USA Today polled 47 economists, finding that they were less optimistic in mid-July than in April. The spring poll exuded confidence as the recovery seemed to be percolating along nicely.

Yet more than eight in 10 surveyed have lowered their expectations since spring. The reasons: uncertainty in Europe, slow job growth in the United States, a sluggish housing market and faltering factory production.

As one economist summarized, "We need a much stronger recovery, and we're not getting it."

Thus, the experts predict the economy will expand by 2.5 percent the second half of the year — down from their earlier prediction of 3 percent. The United States lost 8.5 million jobs during the recession, and 60 percent of the economists surveyed doubt the country can recover the jobs before 2014. In the spring survey, half of those polled thought the jobs would return by 2013.

The economy is expected to add more than 100,000 jobs a month. But when population growth is taken into account, a more robust job market will be needed to keep the 9.5 percent unemployment rate from increasing.

Lackluster job growth is the most serious hindrance to recovery, said 54 percent of the respondents. Risks of deflation — a drop in wages and prices — and another recession were cited.

Let's hope it does not come to that. But jobs are key — not only to individuals but for the country's recovery as well.