Afghan strategy

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta signaled a shift in U.S. strategy in Afghanistan with his announcement that American troops will move away from their combat mission there a year sooner than expected.

Mr. Panetta told reporters traveling with him to a NATO meeting in Brussels that the goal is to “transition from a combat role to a training, advise and assist role” by mid- to late 2013. The current strategy adopted by NATO leaders in 2010 calls for a gradual handoff of control to Afghans province by province that is to be completed by the end of 2013. The assumption is that coalition forces would still take a lead role in military operations until then. All U.S. combat forces are to be withdrawn by the end of 2014 in a strategy that mirrors U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, where the United States ended its combat role months before the last troops came home in December.

The accelerated timeline is good news, but has to be viewed with caution.

The administration expected to withdraw 22,000 troops by fall. Yet there is still no schedule for bringing home the remaining 68,000 before the end of 2014, and they could still be drawn into combat. Mr. Panetta said the shift to a support role “doesn’t mean we’re not going to be combat-ready.” And later Wednesday evening, following Mr. Panetta’s remarks, a Pentagon spokesman said that U.S. troops could still be involved in some combat operations.

Even under the present plan, the United States expects to maintain what Mr. Panetta called an “enduring presence” of U.S. forces in Afghanistan after 2014 under terms of an agreement that is being negotiated.

The more optimistic timeline also assumes continued progress training Afghan forces, whose performance has drawn criticism, as well as continued gains against the Taliban despite a National Intelligence Estimate on Afghanistan that the progress so far may not be sustainable.

Americans will remain targets and suffer casualties even at the hands of supposed allies until they are all brought home.